Football season is over and the Patriots are champs once again. However, the draft season is already well underway and football junkies everywhere have already begun making their mock drafts and trying to find the number one draft pick for their team.

NFL.com gave their list of the top 50 prospects coming out of college. These are based on the best players. Then they had their four draft gurus give their first round picks for every team. What it shows, more than anything, is the unscientific nature of the draft. Mock drafts not only look at the prospects, but also the draft order, team needs and position strength.

One overhyped vote can take a late first round pick and make them a number one selection (i.e., Deshaun Watson – Clemson QB). The attached table shows the recent mock draft from NFL.com’s  with draft order, the average position in which they will be selected, the top 50 prospects and their position/school.

Myles Garrett 1.25 Miles Garrett DE Texas A&M
Jonathan Allen 2.75 Malik Hooker S Ohio State
Mitch Trubisky 7.75 Marshon Lattimore CB Ohio State
Malik Hooker 8 Jamal Adams S LSU
Jamal Adams 4.25 Jonathan Allen DT Alabama
Marshon Lattimore 7 Reuben Foster LB Alabama
Garrett Bolles 21.5 Leonard Fournette RB LSU
O.J. Howard 18 Corey Davis WR Western Michigan
Leonard Fournette 8.5 Mike Williams WR Clemson
DeShone Kizer 26 Solomon Thomas DE Stanford
Reuben Foster 8.75 Dalvin Cook RB Florida State
Cam Robinson 22.5 David Njoku TE Miami
Patrick Mahomes 33 OJ Howard TE Alabama
Ryan Ramczyk 19.25 Sidney Jones CB Washington
Jalen Tabor 25.5 Ryan Ramczyk OT Wisconsin
Taco Charlton 19.75 Derek Barnett Edge Rush Tennessee
Zach Cunningham 32.5 Forrest Lamp G Western Kentucky
John Ross 25.25 DeShone Kizer QB Notre Dame
Corey Davis 18.5 Tre’Davious White CB LSU
Forrest Lamp 27.25 Teez Tabor CB Florida
David Njoku 22.5 Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford
D’Onta Foreman Quincy Wilson CB Florida
Solomon Thomas 19.5 Takkarist McKinley DE UCLA
Dalvin Cook 18.5 Budda Baker S Florida State
Justin Evans Taco Charlton DT Michigan
Marlon Humphrey 22.5 Alvin Kamara RB Tennessee
Jabrill Peppers 25 John Ross WR Washington
Quincy Wilson 20 Garett Bolles OT Utah
Mike Williams 17 Gareon Conley Clemson
Jordan Willis Jared Davis Kansas State
Malik McDowell 26.75 Mitch Trubisky QB North Carolina
Josh Harvey-Clemons Deshaun Watson QB Clemson
Deshaun Watson 12.75 Jabrill Peppers S Michigan
Takkarist McKinley 22.25 TJ Watt OLB Wisconsin
Obi Melifonwu Charles Harris DE Missouri
Taywayn Taylor Marlon Humphrey CB Alabama
Tre-Davious White 25 Adoree’ Jackson CB USC
Nazair Jones Tim Williams
Adoree Jackson Curtis Samuel
Antonio Garcia Cam Robinson DE Alabama
Jarrad Davis Haason Reddick OLB Temple
Carlos Henderson Ryan Anderson
Tyus Bowser Evan Engram TE
Amara Darboh Gerald Everett
Derek Barnett 19.25 Cooper Kupp
Raekwon McMillian Demarcus Walker
Roderick Johnson Fabian Moreau
Alvin Kamara Jourdan Lewis
Copper Kupp Tarell Basham
Christian McCaffrey Chad Hansen
Dan Freeney G Dan Freeney G Indiana
Even Engram
Daeshon Hall
Gareon Conley
Wayne Gallman
Haason Reddick
Chris Wormley
Montravious Adams
Desmond King
Charles Harris
Tim Williams
Michael Roberts
Lorenzo Jerome
T.J. Watt 30.5

 

What these stats show is that four “experts” from NFL.com can’t even agree on the top 52 draft picks v. top 50 prospects. One expert picked Deshaun Watson, QB from Clemson, as his number one pick, but the others had him at #9 to the Bills and #27 to the Chiefs. The only pick every expert agreed on was Malik Hooker going 7th to the Chargers. The senior bowl has also altered current mock drafts by elevating the status of Hassan Reddick (OLB)and David Njoku (TE) and several players from smaller schools.

And we haven’t even made it to the combine! Injuries, trades and several high-priced free agents will also impact future mock drafts – so don’t let the experts discourage you with your team’s selection. There are always surprises in every draft and you can find the latest news and discussions at Football Drafting!

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