QBs Will Fly Off Draft Board in First Round

Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch all go in top 10

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Why are QBs such a hot commodity in the NFL? Well, if you don’t already know, let me put it into perspective for you —anytime a conversation comes up, wherein participants have the ‘greatest ever’ conversation, who has the most rings always seems to hold the most weight.

From a franchise perspective, having an MVP Quarterback on your roster is the difference between having a chance to make the playoffs every year, even when your team is actually mediocre, to selecting in the top 10 yet again in next year’s draft. With a franchise QB on your side, the NFL is exciting and fun year after year, without one NFL life is frustrating and painful. You get my point.

If you are still not convinced on the importance of a QB, here is a HUGE stat for you; out of 50 super bowls played, 36 of them had at least one QB who had either won or would eventually win an NFL MVP award. Ten of those super bowls had two NFL MVP QBs competing against each other (most recently super bowl 50). Seven of the NFL regular season MVPs won both the award and the Super Bowl in the same year – Bart Starr (1966), Earl Morrall (1968), Terry Bradshaw (1978), Joe Montana (1989), Steve Young (1994), Brett Favre (1996), and Kurt Warner (1999).

In other words — your team is nearly guaranteed at least a Super Bowl appearance, and almost guaranteed a super bowl win, if your team has an MVP caliber QB running the show. Now, yes, it is true that defense does win championships (just ask Peyton Manning), but you still need to score points, especially when you are coming from behind.

This is why my bold prediction for this NFL draft is that at least 4 QBs will go in the top round. Crazy, you say? Consider this — in the 2014 draft, three went in the first round, and in the 2015 draft, the top two picks were QBs. This year’s draft will see Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, and Connor Cook all go in the first round, with Cradle Jones, Dak Prescott and Christian Hackenburg possibly squeezing into the first round. There are so many QB needy teams out there, it is a sure bet that some draft day deals are going to be made so that a team can get a game breaking player.

Some fans will experience panic attacks in Cleveland when I write the following: the Browns will select yet another QB this year. They should be able to choose whomever they want at No. 2, but it is more likely that the Titans will trade out of the first spot to let another team get their man (think San Francisco or St. Louis). If the Titans do not trade out, expect the ripple effect as the Browns, Chargers, and Cowboys could grab a QB, leaving the entire first round left open. Both the Chargers and Cowboys have aging veterans who won’t be around for much longer, 4 seasons max, maybe? It wouldn’t be shocking to see them pass up a big defensive player to grab a QB.

After that you have Chicago, Philadelphia (if they don’t sign Sam Bradford), New York Jets, and Houston, who all might want either an upgrade or potential successor for the current guy. Taking into account the stats mentioned earlier, it is key to note the opposite is true for teams with average or below average QBs – it is rare that teams get to the super bowl without a top 5 QB – and Chicago, Philly, NY, and Houston do not look very likely to reach the promised land anytime soon (Houston making the playoffs last year was a total fluke, it should have been the Colts or Jaguars).

So, really, if NFL owners stop and think about it, it was never really their choice at all. They must get a good QB or they can kiss their Super Bowl dreams goodbye. Oh, and if the aforementioned doesn’t convince the perennial losing teams to select a QB in the first round, consider this – Tom Brady, who has appeared in 6 super bowls and won 4 of them, was selected in the 6th round at pick 199. The Browns got Courtney Brown, the Jets selected Chad Pennington, the Lions got Stockar McDougle, and the Jags got R. Jay Soward?! It blows my mind that they all thought these guys could help their teams more than Tom Brady at the time. Yeah, yeah, hindsight is foresight, whatever.

The bottom line to fans, coaches, and owners alike is this — even if you think you’re getting a better deal, because draft ‘experts’ say so, think again. Draft a QB and draft a QB again! If they’re both good, you can trade one later. If your pick was no good, draft a QB yet again. Do anything you can to get QBs on your team until you have your man in place, because you’re never getting to the super bowl until you do. Get a franchise QB first and foremost, and build your defense around them after. No amount of Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner, or Jalen Ramsey will ever be equal to a Tom Brady (no offense guys). That’s just how it is in the good ole NFL.

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